The invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions imposed on Russia have European nations worried about access to natural gas on which they have long depended. The conflict has increased pressure on energy resources, driving up the prices of oil, gas, coal and other commodities. But the war in Ukraine could hit more than just energy supplies in Europe. Global food security is also at risk. In particular, it could disrupt the wheat supply chain in several Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries.

Russia and Ukraine together supply more than a quarter of the world’s wheat, feeding billions of people in the form of bread, pasta, and packaged foods. The countries together are also key suppliers of barley, sunflower seed oil and corn, among other products. As tensions in the Mediterranean are posed to disrupt global shipments of wheat, corn and vegetable oil, the price of agricultural commodities has fluctuated sharply. Supplemented with the rising costs in important goods for farmers (i.e. fuel and fertilizer), the conflict could threaten global food security and social stability. 

Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, already limited its own shipments of wheat last year with an export tax designed to hold down domestic food prices. Further restrictions could prompt concerns about social unrest and a disruption of the wheat supply chain in other countries, particularly in Turkey, Egypt, Kazakhstan and other parts of Europe where wheat is a large part of regional diets. 

The market price of wheat could become a systemic problem for poorer countries in the MENA region. It has already risen 35% since Russian forces invaded Ukraine. The conflict will likely diminish wheat supplies and hurt the food economy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, resulting in government policy for rationing and cost increases that’ll contribute to social unrest. 

How the war will affect food security in the MENA region depends on how long the conflict lasts. If farmers in Ukraine aren’t able to cultivate and harvest wheat crops by July 2022, the supply chain will be interrupted. But even if they are, there’s no guarantee they will be able to use the necessary infrastructure to transport grain to the ports.